Higher Post: Watkins vs. Bueckers!
...this battle is not on Netflix, so you will be able to stream it.
Congregation, please stand up….
…it’s time to celebrate because its World Basketball Day!!
Yup, that’s a thing. Last year, the United Nations declared that December 21 would be World Basketball Day! So, it no longer just the day we wait for the little orange ball of fire to come back to us… like a second-half fast-break. So, Happy World Basketball Day! Get up, praise Naismith and watch some hoops!
The Hidalgo Effect
I will start by saying, despite the name, this is not a post about Hannah Hidalgo. I think you know by now, I have a section for that below.
However, It's been a little over a week since now #3 Notre Dame beat then #2 UConn and since then I have noticed a certain reaction to this game that is not unusual in sports but caught my eye this time.
At the start of any season, there are all sorts of pundits making all sorts of predictions. In the women's game, the narrative this season was all about Juju Watkins and USC versus Paige Bueckers and UConn as title favorites. To be fair, no one is discounting defending champion South Carolina since we all know Coach Staley was reloading.
Notre Dame was largely off the radar. There too many questions:
How would Olivia Miles play after a year-long injury?
How would Miles and Hidalgo get along on the court?
What about all the other injuries? Would they survive a tough non-con gauntlet with a short bench?
After the Irish beat USC on the road, people started paying attention. But, back-to-back losses against TCU and Utah during Feast Week flattened that Guinness very quickly. It wasn’t until beating Texas, and then UConn, did folks really wake up.
Suddenly, there was a lot of chatter on the circuits of social and podcasts about Hidalgo and the Irish being overlooked. There was excitement for this team and its scrappy squad. After all, beating three Top-5 teams before January was something nobody except for hardcore Irish fans saw coming.
However, in the human nature of people not wanting to be wrong, the narrative started to change from ‘look at what Hidalgo is doing’ to ‘what is wrong with Watkins and Bueckers.’ This is what I’m referring to as the Hidalgo Effect. It’s not simple enough to sit back and enjoy the show you were not expecting. You have to assume, if you missed it, its because there is a problem with the other teams.
I remember this from the 2004 World Series. After the Red Sox swept the Cardinals for their first championship in 86 years, St. Louis sports media started saying, “well, the Cards were tired after going to 7 games against the Astros.” To be fair, they might have been exhausted. I don’t remember that series because they didn’t make documentaries about it, like two that were produced for the Red Sox/Yankees ALCS.
See, hindsight is a self-preserving fast-break layup.
The Hidalgo Effect has spawned two theories:
Juju Watkins is underachieving in her sophomore season.
Paige Bueckers is being mis-coached by Geno.
In order for these pundits to be right, then these theories must be true. So, let’s take a look at them:
1. Is Juju Watkins underachieving in her sophomore season?
Let’s look at the numbers. USC is 10-1 with that only loss at home to Notre Dame.
In those 10 wins, the Trojans have beat their opponents by an average of 40.7 points, with 3 of those games having a win differential over the amount of total points scored by that opponent. USC is clearly rolling over its opponents so far.
10 of the 11 games, Watkins was points leader, with 5 also as assists leader. She is clearly the star of a high quality team.
When you compare her average stats against her freshman year, you can see there is not much difference. While her main offensive numbers are down slightly, her assists-to-turnover ratio has improved, so she is passing more and protecting the ball. When you have the luxury of Kiki Iriafen down low, you will pass more with less of a need to score yourself.
Bottom Line: Is Juju underachieving? Clearly not. However, one could argue that you would expect more growth from year 1 to 2, but when are scoring an average of 24.7ppg already, there is not much you need to grow on, but rather to fine tune your game for improvement. Significant improvements with Field Goal % and 3-point %, show there is certainly growth in there. She just needs more experience against top opponents to expand that growth.
2. Is Paige Bueckers is being mis-coached by Geno?
This is an interesting take because it takes all of the blame off of Bueckers and onto the Hall of Fame coach, but that does not invalidate the argument. It is also more complicated when you dig in.
Auriemma has been under fire recently for his mixed messaging. At one presser, he said, Paige needs to share the ball more and play more with her team. And, at another, he said, she need to put more in and lead this team. Well, which is it?
Other criticisms say he holds Paige back from playing her true game. That seemed more on display during the Notre Dame game as the contrast from Buecker’s game to Hidalgo’s game showed more that Notre Dame coach Niele Ivey lets Hannah be Hannah, while Paige showed a lot less fire. The Huskies went back to running the same plays over and over even after the Irish caught on, and yet, Bueckers still shot 55% from the floor leading the scoring with 25 points. She had quite a game.
Others argue that Auriemma does not know what to do with a player with the type of talent Bueckers has. We are seeing something similar with Hailey Van Lith. After a stint at Louisville, Van Lith went to LSU to broaden her game but never looked comfortable. Moving to TCU, where she is free to play her game, she is flourishing. Coaching does matter. And, just being a Hall of Fame coach, does not mean any player should be pushed into a specific system. Jamming a square peg into a round hole just dulls the edges.
To be fair to Bueckers (and Geno) it is hard to read this one. Bueckers has had great success during her college career, but it’s been up and down due to unfortunate injuries sidelining her for long periods of time. Have we really had a chance to see her true game take off? Bueckers is a super talent that deserves a long road for her game to accelerate on with less flat tire pitstops along the way.
Bottom Line: Is Geno mis-coaching her? I think the question to ask is, would she flourish more under a Coach Ivey, like Hidalgo, or a coach like TCU’s Mark Campbell, as Van Lith has? Or, does Geno’s approach help Bueckers to add discipline to her game and keep her team-focused where she might take too much on herself? And, as I ask that, I realize this is a question we may not be able to answer.
To be clear, I was never a player, though I did coach a youth squad years back. My star player was determined to put the team in his back and go for the win. He did not have confidence in his teammates so at times he put pressure on himself for all the offense. And, his opponents all saw it and was therefore easy to double/triple team to shut him down. As a result, I had to pull him from games in crucial stretches for coaching. He was mad but needed to see that 1.) the team can play without him, and 2.) he was not helping the team by taking all the pressure, it was actually a determent. His actions were not due to ego, but out of passion for the victory. His intent was good but his misunderstood the effect. That is where coaching comes in. Pulling your star player in the time you need them the most may seem like holding a player back, but its more for long term growth to pay dividends later on.
I realize this story isn’t anywhere close to the level of Auriemma and Bueckers, but putting on a coaching hat for a bit, it is easy to see more than one side here and the complications of how a coach helps a player grow, with the constant pressure for wins. While, I don’t know which approach Auriemma is taking with Bueckers, I do know we are going to need more road to see where this journey is going. Go Defense.
Luckily for us, we get to see this preseason dream match up as Juju Watkins and her USC Trojans travel to Hartford to take on Paige Bueckers and the UConn Huskies, mono e mono, with out a Hidalgo in sight.
We Got Next: Games to watch Today! (all times EST)
With less games this week due to the holiday, here are some to check out for Saturday Services!
Men’s Games: Welcome to conference play and blue bloods battle!! Look out for “Somebody U” Coach Gottlieb, they are undefeated!
#18 UCLA at UNC (Saturday, 3p, CBS) Blue bloods battle while the Tar Heels still look for that quality win.
#16 Purdue at #2 Auburn (Saturday. 4:30p. ESPN) The Tigers avoid a big scare with Johni Broom’s injury. Let’s see if they keep their dream season going.
Ohio State at #4 Kentucky (Saturday, 5:30p CBS) Watch the crowd at MSG look like an electoral map!
Green Bay at Drake (Saturday, 6:00p ESPN+) Careful what you ask for Coach Gottlieb. You now get undefeated Drake on the road after losing to ‘Nobody U’. Beware of the Dogs.
Women’s Games: Marquee matchups!
Richmond vs. Alabama (Saturday, 1:15p) I hope you are not afraid of Spiders.
St. Johns vs. Villanova (Saturday, 2p) because you can’t hold the Mayo.
Baylor vs Kansas (Saturday, 5p, ESPN+) Old rivals at it again! Look out for those Jayhawks. They are fun.
#7 USC vs #4 UConn (Saturday, 8p. FOX) This the match up we are waiting for! The Hannah Hidalgo consolation game.
Keeping up with the Hannahs
Two of my favorite players are not only incredibly fun to watch…but are both named Hannah! I dedicate this section to them. We try and keep up with them during a pivotal season!
Hannah Stuelke (Junior / Forward / Iowa):
B1G play officially kicked off last Sunday as #17 Michigan State hosted ‘Hometown Hannah’ and the #22 Hawkeyes of Iowa. The game was back and forth for the first half with Iowa beginning to pull away in start of the second half. With limited minutes from center Addy O’Grady due to foul trouble, Hannah was able to cover more down low, getting to the line often. Stuelke has worked hard on improving her free throw shooting over her time in Iowa City and it’s paying off. She is always strong with getting to the line, but her was not as strong with hitting once there. This season sees a major jump in FT% as she has gone from 46% (freshman year) to 62.9% (last year) to 72..9% this season. She went 10-14 against the Spartans, but unfortunately, Iowa as not able to hang on after a Michigan State surged to take the lead in the final 5mins and never looked back. B1G play will be even harder this year after the addition of USC, UCLA, and Oregon, but that means we are in for some hard fought treats in the dog days on the road to March.
The Hawkeyes bounced back last night against a scrappy Northern Iowa team who had their sights on winning the in-state match ups. Iowa lead most of the way, even by as much as 16 in the first half. However, the Panthers pounced back to get the lead down to one possession deep in the 4th. When her team needed it most, Stuelke turned into The Incredible Stuelk on both sides of the floor, mainly on defense, blocking shots and smothering UNI star Maya McDermott on D, while McDermott was trying to put her team on her back for the road win. Hannah continued to get to the line and hit her free throws down the stretch going 7-8 in the game making up half of her 15 total points.
While she has been going back down low when needed on offense, on defense she was coming far up to make life uncomfortable for UNI ball handlers, even playing a little Hannah Hidalgo-style D. Love it.
Up Next (all times EST):
The Hawkeyes are off for the holiday and return to action on Sunday 12/29 against Purdue.
Hannah Hidalgo (Sophomore / Guard / Notre Dame):
Meanwhile, there was only one game in Hidalgoland this week and it was blow out over Eastern Michigan 118-49. Hannah only played 28 mins in this one, but she didn’t need to play any more. She still scored 27 points, going 10-14 from the field with 6 steals. This game was a practice for the Irish.
Notre Dame came out on fire outscoring EMU by 21 in the first quarter alone and led 62-20 at the half. The upside of a game like this was seeing bench players shine. Sophomore Emma Risch, who had been averaging around 15mins per game, went 7-9 from behind the arc (77.8%) racking up 23 points. Sophomore Cassandre Prosper also scored 20, while Olivia Miles, Sonia Citron and Liatu King also scored in double digits (17, 11, 15 respectfully)
Eastern Michigan, incidentally, have a player named “Brooklyn Thrash”. That is absolutely fantastic!
Up Next (all times EST):
Sunday - Loyola Maryland at #3 Notre Dame (8p, ACCNX)
…And because its Christmas time… you get a bonus Hannah.
Hannah Kohn (Sophomore / Guard / Clemson):
Ok, I know what you are thinking - now i’m just looking for Hannahs. But, this Hannah took me by surprise. Monday night, I went to see the Senior Tour (NBA) and upon coming home, I did something I usually do - turn on the ACC Network to get some recaps of the evening. Turns out they were showing a replay of Clemson/Wake Forest from earlier in the day. I’m not very familiar with either squad to I thought I would watch for a bit. Suddenly, a player comes on to the floor and starts running all about with a ton of energy, getting open and then hit back-to-back 3’s when she did.
Hmm, sounds like my kind of player. Then, her name popped on screen and got to see her name was Hannah. That makes too much sense.
Hannah Kohn is a sophomore transfer from Chattanooga, which she played for Clemson coach Shawn Poppie. He brought her with him when he moved to Clemson. I have not seen much on her yet. She came off the bench for 32mins against Wake scoring 13 points, almost all from 3s. Not sure if I can add a new Hannah to this column yet, but I have seen enough to keep my eyes on her. And, being in the ACC, she will have to play Notre Dame (1/12) and UNC, so we will talk about here again this year. I look forward to that and excited to see what this Hannah brings. Stay tuned.
Up Next (all times EST):
Sunday 12/29 - Clemson at #21 NC State (6p, ACCNet)
Five Touches: Passing around the hoops world
Karma is a ‘Technical’ Foul: D2 Michigan Tech upsets Doug Gottlieb’s Green Bay team after he makes comments about having to play ‘Nobody U”. At least he will have something to talk about on the sports talk radio show he refused to give up.
Ceiling, Roof, Goat: Caitlin Clark jersey retirement day has been announced for when Juju Watkins and USC come to Iowa City. Since tix are sold out, second market tix have skyrocketed.
Tiger Scare Avoided: Auburn’s star Johni Broome will not require surgery for to his shoulder following an injury against Georgia State this week. Furthermore, he will not need to miss extended time either.
The Brink of a Comeback: LA Sparks star Cameron Brink, who was out most of her rookie season due to a torn ACL, has signed with Unrivaled and debut in 2026.
Watch Duqusene’s senior guard and “Queen of Pittsburgh Basketball” Megan McConnell score 24 points in 7mins! Please put the sound on because the announcers are amazing! Yes, she is one of the ‘Basketball McConnells’, which gets me encouraging my Knicks friends to sign her to balance out her brother TJ who feasted on NY during last year’s playoffs.
Extracurricular Reading: Sometimes we all need a T.O.
QB TJ Finley enters transfer portal: This will be his 5th school in 6 seasons. If you do that in Philly, do you get a Big 5 degree?
Not an Uber Job: Oscar Meyer is accepting applications to be a Weinermobile driver!! Get the resume polished with condiments!
The other Hidalgo Effect: The world is running out of Guinness! Oh Goodness!
Final Seconds:
Ok, folks! Time to get away from the desk and so watch some of these hoops today! If you like what you read, please Like, Share and Subscribe. Also, feel free to join the conversation - just keep it upbeat!
Always live One Shining Moment at a time. Never be boring.